“And after the Russians are fully ejected from the country”
Herein lies the problem. If your argument is predicated on this assumption, well, it becomes a lot harder to imagine a prosperous Ukraine. Even the most optimistic forecasts rarely imagine a total Russian ejection from the country (and are we including Crimea here?).
Noah, are you really advocating for a tax increase in a country with a 37% GDP decline, 25% inflation, a war that has removed 9 million people from the country, and forced millions of others into internal refugees? As well as a 20% UAH devaluation?
You make statements like Ukraine "has a pretty robust welfare state" -- but compared to what? The UAH-denominated welfare payments are right now substantially all late. And with inflation and the UAH devaluation, there is not much left.
Moreover, you talk about "solidarity", but most entrepreneurs have (rightly) seen the government as being predatory in terms of taxation in the past, without offering any real social benefits or returns. There is a real reason that people prefer not to declare their true incomes: it's a sure route to expropriation by corrupt tax officials, corrupt fire officials, police, customs officials, rival oligarchs and pretty much everyone. Surely you are familiar with the problems of bribery in Ukraine.
Ukraine does have a lot of potential. But this is going to be a very rough winter for the average population still within its borders, as well as those outside.
There are very few scenarios where higher taxes are going to be achievable, even if laws are passed.
In contrast, the west should be doing a lot more with real support, paid out rapidly, not announced and then debated upon for months.
A key determinant of Ukraine's future is whether the country can escape its longstanding practice and legacy of corruption.
I'm skeptical that removing a few oligarchs from the scene will make a significant difference.
It will take a lot of effort and time to reverse the previous way of doing business.
Ukrainians are no better nor worse than people anywhere; they're not angels so they will need strong laws strongly enforced. to achieve a trust based, non bribery based commercial society.
The main thing for Ukraine, especially long-term, is its demographics. Younger females who fled to Europe (unlike 40+ yo) will probably stay there + once males are allowed to leave, many will. Bet on people, not countries. So you should be bullish on Poland and the Baltics, perhaps.
“And after the Russians are fully ejected from the country”
Herein lies the problem. If your argument is predicated on this assumption, well, it becomes a lot harder to imagine a prosperous Ukraine. Even the most optimistic forecasts rarely imagine a total Russian ejection from the country (and are we including Crimea here?).
Noah, are you really advocating for a tax increase in a country with a 37% GDP decline, 25% inflation, a war that has removed 9 million people from the country, and forced millions of others into internal refugees? As well as a 20% UAH devaluation?
You make statements like Ukraine "has a pretty robust welfare state" -- but compared to what? The UAH-denominated welfare payments are right now substantially all late. And with inflation and the UAH devaluation, there is not much left.
Moreover, you talk about "solidarity", but most entrepreneurs have (rightly) seen the government as being predatory in terms of taxation in the past, without offering any real social benefits or returns. There is a real reason that people prefer not to declare their true incomes: it's a sure route to expropriation by corrupt tax officials, corrupt fire officials, police, customs officials, rival oligarchs and pretty much everyone. Surely you are familiar with the problems of bribery in Ukraine.
Ukraine does have a lot of potential. But this is going to be a very rough winter for the average population still within its borders, as well as those outside.
There are very few scenarios where higher taxes are going to be achievable, even if laws are passed.
In contrast, the west should be doing a lot more with real support, paid out rapidly, not announced and then debated upon for months.
A key determinant of Ukraine's future is whether the country can escape its longstanding practice and legacy of corruption.
I'm skeptical that removing a few oligarchs from the scene will make a significant difference.
It will take a lot of effort and time to reverse the previous way of doing business.
Ukrainians are no better nor worse than people anywhere; they're not angels so they will need strong laws strongly enforced. to achieve a trust based, non bribery based commercial society.
The main thing for Ukraine, especially long-term, is its demographics. Younger females who fled to Europe (unlike 40+ yo) will probably stay there + once males are allowed to leave, many will. Bet on people, not countries. So you should be bullish on Poland and the Baltics, perhaps.