Why does "pro-immigration" need to entail making illegal immigration easier (e..g, a less secure border)? If a candidate ever wants to make a political breakthrough on the issue they should take the stance of "less illegal, more legal." Otherwise we will remain stuck in this inefficient stalemate.
Personally I see the logic of competition and solidarity through a very different lens than you do.
To me, the worst aspect of the immigration is the H-1B visa. _Not_ because it admits skilled workers who compete in the market where I sell my labor -- there's been a perpetual shortage of people with that kind of engineering skills basically forever, it totally makes sense to import people who can do the work. No, the problem is that it creates second-class citizens in our workplaces, and undermines everyone's negotiating power, exactly the way that the existence of menial undocumented immigrant labor -- people who can't complain to the cops about wage theft or other abuses -- undermines the power of legal workers. You're far less likely to agitate for a raise, or just for hiring enough people to meet the workload without working 60 hour weeks, if you're just a _little_ afraid that the boss can just fire you and get somebody from India, China, or Russia, to take your place.
I had a roommate who was on an H-1B whose company folded, and she couldn't find a new sponsor in time, so she was shipped back to India -- which frankly was a loss for the US, because she was brilliant. If somebody's good enough to come here to work for some specific company, they're good enough to live and work here, period.
No one I know is considering immigrating to the US since the last 2-3 years. They choose Europe or Australia instead.
Immigrants have got the message loud and clear - a large portion of the country dislikes or fears us, and neither republicans nor democrats understand or care about immigration in any true sense beyond publicity. Green cards can take 10+ years, even at that point there are no guarantees. During those 10+ years, if you are unemployed for 30+ days you are fucked. You can study here, work here, raise a family, pay taxes and basically become American in every way that matters but still have no right to entry or to start a business or vote, get treated like shit at the border and be thrown out at any time. H1Bs literally don't buy furniture for years because if you lose your job, your options are to scramble and find one before the I765 expires or leave the country.
These are all ground realities of the details of immigration that don't change in the slightest no matter which president in charge. Because the politicians are uninformed, unwilling or unable to materially affect the bureaucracies they nominally govern. The leaders don't seem to understand the difference between governance and public relations anymore. The politicians win and lose based on social media and wapo opeds, but there is no actual change in governance - no one is actually behind the wheel. Welcome to the LARP world.
The Democrats can’t do anything if they are not in power. Immigration is an issue with some small upside but a huge downside with respect to maintaining political power. The pro-immigration bloc that has immigration as a make or break issue is pretty small - certainly much smaller than the ant-immigration bloc. The pro-immigration bloc should go about changing the hearts and mind of the American people on this issue and not attack the Democratic Party. The Democrats support immigration but they’re not going to commit suicide over it.
I really can't see the idea that college-educated Americans are more restrictionist than others, or feel less solidarity with immigrants and refugees.
Almost all the information I've seen indicates that being college-educated correlates with an openness to experience that encourages support for immigrants and immigration. Here's an example from a Pew study --
While there might be a backlash to H1Bs on an individual level, it doesn't seem to substantially inform peoples' politics either. You yourself have made a post about how the tech workers are very left-leaning overall. If you look at the cities with lots of skilled immigrants, they're some of the most liberal places in the country. (If anything, I imagine that working with people from different countries creates more social bonds that increase support for skilled immigrants.)
One of the few good things about the Cold War was a bipartisan recognition that competition for citizens was a good way to combat authoritarianism. East Germany lost 20% of its population in a decade. It sent a message.
Now we're entering an era where populations are peaking and heading into decline, this should be an even more powerful and useful strategy.
We have a massive policy apparatus dedicated to pressuring Cuba's system. We've studied the boatlift and it had no negative impacts on Miami. But we tell their refugees not to come. We criticize China's behavior in Hong Kong. Do we create a new visa like the UK? No, we get Biden's Hong Kong "safe haven" proposal, just an 18 month visa extension for people already here, does nothing for anyone currently in HK.
Not to mention Afghanistan. If 90% of that country doesn't want to live in a caliphate... maybe if we can't secure the territory, humanity would be better off if we just helped them leave.
We have to be conscious of the sheer weight of the bureaucratic process when talking about changes to the immigration process. After 13 years of living in this country I finally took the oath to naturalize as a US citizen this week. USCIS officer interviewing me took every chance she could to lament about their bad technology, arcane process and high work load. It’s easy to issue an executive order choking a piece of the system but it’s a lot harder to issue another order to unclog it.
I also suspect the wariness about admitting more refugees has a lot to do with the administrative system’s capacity to process them. The process very likely does not do anything meaningful on vetting people that cannot be automated and expedited. But Biden and his team wouldn’t want to change it too much too fast because all it takes is one [inevitable] fall through the cracks to end them politically. A better system doesn’t have to be less secure and won’t be but someone has to take that responsibility and no one is in the mood to do so.
"...like abortion, something to be yelled about and fought bitterly about on the margins, even as both sides are too afraid to take dramatic action to upset the status quo."
Really? It seems to me that the next Supreme Court ruling on abortion, if the outcome is what I expect, will be immediately followed by abortion being made outright illegal in about half the country.
You think we have a lot of partisan animosity now? Just wait.
I can’t say I find many issues with Noah’s rather pessimistic take here. The only thing I will add, though, is: it’s still very early in Biden’s presidency.
For the record I find this administration an almost infinite improvement over TFG. But one criticism I will level is: they do seem excessively timid on a lot of issues. Sure, politics ain’t beanbag, but sometimes doing the seemingly safe thing in political terms turns out not to be the smart thing in political terms over the longer-term.
Very timely article as always Noah. As an overconfident educated Latin American wanting to make more money, I do wonder: is there a rich country that is opening up a bit more to skilled inmigrants?
Your focus on immigration is laudable, but we are in mulit crisis times. Reality - 30 years bipartisan immigration reform always getting axed at last minute by GOP (and many Ds of course in conservative regions). The South really did win the Civil War. When you are dealing with a violent organized crime syndicate political party willing the kill its own citizens and with vast media resources and detached/distracted electorate - exactly how do you remedy this? Biden could fight tooth and nail on improving immigration - in the midst of social breakdown with 10 other pressing democracy-destroying challenges. Sandy Hook response tells you everything you need to know about America. So does 20 years in Afghanistan. What is most pressing? My vote is fighting the looming gerrymandering by GOP - that is what is really going to doom us. And it's getting little attn. It will be more devastating then all the anti voting bills.
Christ our president is such a coward. I really hate how the dems policy choice of the day is based on popular opinion polling rather than what's morally right/principled and what the base of the Democratic Party actually wants. If the dems based their policy on the latter they would be much better for it; public opinion is fickle and has a way of changing. Instead the party continues to forever try to please David Brooks et al.
I’m broadly in agreement. However, I’d like to draw a distinction between what I think of as political pragmatism and ideology. An ideology takes varying inputs and consistently spits out the same output. Is the economy weak? Lower taxes! Is the economy roaring? Lower taxes! Wake up with a hangover? Lower taxes! And when it comes to today’s America, the question of immigration is always met with the same ideological responses. It would be merely boring were it not one of the elemental forces (along with media and the new Gilded Age) driving events.
Practically speaking, I accept the economic arguments, even when they glide silently past certain issues. Yet for over two decades I’ve watched as politicians in both the US and Europe have continued to push immigration despite growing objections, seemingly oblivious to how the issue was empowering elements of the Right and far Right. And now that many of us ache for the West to take in Afghani refugees, the situation has grown so toxic that even decent men like Biden hesitate. I blame the Left. Had they pumped the brakes now and then, I believe we’d be less in danger of jerking violently to the Right now. If Noah’s contention is correct that support for immigration on the Left is wide but shallow (and I suspect it is), then ideology needs to be thrown overboard and serious consideration given for how to right the ship of state.
Have you met the average American? They don’t deserve to live in the greatest country on earth.
Why does "pro-immigration" need to entail making illegal immigration easier (e..g, a less secure border)? If a candidate ever wants to make a political breakthrough on the issue they should take the stance of "less illegal, more legal." Otherwise we will remain stuck in this inefficient stalemate.
Personally I see the logic of competition and solidarity through a very different lens than you do.
To me, the worst aspect of the immigration is the H-1B visa. _Not_ because it admits skilled workers who compete in the market where I sell my labor -- there's been a perpetual shortage of people with that kind of engineering skills basically forever, it totally makes sense to import people who can do the work. No, the problem is that it creates second-class citizens in our workplaces, and undermines everyone's negotiating power, exactly the way that the existence of menial undocumented immigrant labor -- people who can't complain to the cops about wage theft or other abuses -- undermines the power of legal workers. You're far less likely to agitate for a raise, or just for hiring enough people to meet the workload without working 60 hour weeks, if you're just a _little_ afraid that the boss can just fire you and get somebody from India, China, or Russia, to take your place.
I had a roommate who was on an H-1B whose company folded, and she couldn't find a new sponsor in time, so she was shipped back to India -- which frankly was a loss for the US, because she was brilliant. If somebody's good enough to come here to work for some specific company, they're good enough to live and work here, period.
No one I know is considering immigrating to the US since the last 2-3 years. They choose Europe or Australia instead.
Immigrants have got the message loud and clear - a large portion of the country dislikes or fears us, and neither republicans nor democrats understand or care about immigration in any true sense beyond publicity. Green cards can take 10+ years, even at that point there are no guarantees. During those 10+ years, if you are unemployed for 30+ days you are fucked. You can study here, work here, raise a family, pay taxes and basically become American in every way that matters but still have no right to entry or to start a business or vote, get treated like shit at the border and be thrown out at any time. H1Bs literally don't buy furniture for years because if you lose your job, your options are to scramble and find one before the I765 expires or leave the country.
These are all ground realities of the details of immigration that don't change in the slightest no matter which president in charge. Because the politicians are uninformed, unwilling or unable to materially affect the bureaucracies they nominally govern. The leaders don't seem to understand the difference between governance and public relations anymore. The politicians win and lose based on social media and wapo opeds, but there is no actual change in governance - no one is actually behind the wheel. Welcome to the LARP world.
The Democrats can’t do anything if they are not in power. Immigration is an issue with some small upside but a huge downside with respect to maintaining political power. The pro-immigration bloc that has immigration as a make or break issue is pretty small - certainly much smaller than the ant-immigration bloc. The pro-immigration bloc should go about changing the hearts and mind of the American people on this issue and not attack the Democratic Party. The Democrats support immigration but they’re not going to commit suicide over it.
I really can't see the idea that college-educated Americans are more restrictionist than others, or feel less solidarity with immigrants and refugees.
Almost all the information I've seen indicates that being college-educated correlates with an openness to experience that encourages support for immigrants and immigration. Here's an example from a Pew study --
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/12/17/views-on-race-and-immigration/
While there might be a backlash to H1Bs on an individual level, it doesn't seem to substantially inform peoples' politics either. You yourself have made a post about how the tech workers are very left-leaning overall. If you look at the cities with lots of skilled immigrants, they're some of the most liberal places in the country. (If anything, I imagine that working with people from different countries creates more social bonds that increase support for skilled immigrants.)
One of the few good things about the Cold War was a bipartisan recognition that competition for citizens was a good way to combat authoritarianism. East Germany lost 20% of its population in a decade. It sent a message.
Now we're entering an era where populations are peaking and heading into decline, this should be an even more powerful and useful strategy.
We have a massive policy apparatus dedicated to pressuring Cuba's system. We've studied the boatlift and it had no negative impacts on Miami. But we tell their refugees not to come. We criticize China's behavior in Hong Kong. Do we create a new visa like the UK? No, we get Biden's Hong Kong "safe haven" proposal, just an 18 month visa extension for people already here, does nothing for anyone currently in HK.
Not to mention Afghanistan. If 90% of that country doesn't want to live in a caliphate... maybe if we can't secure the territory, humanity would be better off if we just helped them leave.
It is exasperating.
We have to be conscious of the sheer weight of the bureaucratic process when talking about changes to the immigration process. After 13 years of living in this country I finally took the oath to naturalize as a US citizen this week. USCIS officer interviewing me took every chance she could to lament about their bad technology, arcane process and high work load. It’s easy to issue an executive order choking a piece of the system but it’s a lot harder to issue another order to unclog it.
I also suspect the wariness about admitting more refugees has a lot to do with the administrative system’s capacity to process them. The process very likely does not do anything meaningful on vetting people that cannot be automated and expedited. But Biden and his team wouldn’t want to change it too much too fast because all it takes is one [inevitable] fall through the cracks to end them politically. A better system doesn’t have to be less secure and won’t be but someone has to take that responsibility and no one is in the mood to do so.
"...like abortion, something to be yelled about and fought bitterly about on the margins, even as both sides are too afraid to take dramatic action to upset the status quo."
Really? It seems to me that the next Supreme Court ruling on abortion, if the outcome is what I expect, will be immediately followed by abortion being made outright illegal in about half the country.
You think we have a lot of partisan animosity now? Just wait.
Is it the right use of the phrase "third rail"? Immigration isn't untouchable, deadly subject - it is one of the hotly & openly debated issues.
I can’t say I find many issues with Noah’s rather pessimistic take here. The only thing I will add, though, is: it’s still very early in Biden’s presidency.
For the record I find this administration an almost infinite improvement over TFG. But one criticism I will level is: they do seem excessively timid on a lot of issues. Sure, politics ain’t beanbag, but sometimes doing the seemingly safe thing in political terms turns out not to be the smart thing in political terms over the longer-term.
Very timely article as always Noah. As an overconfident educated Latin American wanting to make more money, I do wonder: is there a rich country that is opening up a bit more to skilled inmigrants?
Your focus on immigration is laudable, but we are in mulit crisis times. Reality - 30 years bipartisan immigration reform always getting axed at last minute by GOP (and many Ds of course in conservative regions). The South really did win the Civil War. When you are dealing with a violent organized crime syndicate political party willing the kill its own citizens and with vast media resources and detached/distracted electorate - exactly how do you remedy this? Biden could fight tooth and nail on improving immigration - in the midst of social breakdown with 10 other pressing democracy-destroying challenges. Sandy Hook response tells you everything you need to know about America. So does 20 years in Afghanistan. What is most pressing? My vote is fighting the looming gerrymandering by GOP - that is what is really going to doom us. And it's getting little attn. It will be more devastating then all the anti voting bills.
Christ our president is such a coward. I really hate how the dems policy choice of the day is based on popular opinion polling rather than what's morally right/principled and what the base of the Democratic Party actually wants. If the dems based their policy on the latter they would be much better for it; public opinion is fickle and has a way of changing. Instead the party continues to forever try to please David Brooks et al.
Immigrants aren't an endless supply of labor. The bucket will dry up, or the skills available won't match the skills required for the economy.
Low birth rates seem as much of a problem as low immigration rates.
I’m broadly in agreement. However, I’d like to draw a distinction between what I think of as political pragmatism and ideology. An ideology takes varying inputs and consistently spits out the same output. Is the economy weak? Lower taxes! Is the economy roaring? Lower taxes! Wake up with a hangover? Lower taxes! And when it comes to today’s America, the question of immigration is always met with the same ideological responses. It would be merely boring were it not one of the elemental forces (along with media and the new Gilded Age) driving events.
Practically speaking, I accept the economic arguments, even when they glide silently past certain issues. Yet for over two decades I’ve watched as politicians in both the US and Europe have continued to push immigration despite growing objections, seemingly oblivious to how the issue was empowering elements of the Right and far Right. And now that many of us ache for the West to take in Afghani refugees, the situation has grown so toxic that even decent men like Biden hesitate. I blame the Left. Had they pumped the brakes now and then, I believe we’d be less in danger of jerking violently to the Right now. If Noah’s contention is correct that support for immigration on the Left is wide but shallow (and I suspect it is), then ideology needs to be thrown overboard and serious consideration given for how to right the ship of state.