1. Loved the framing of civil war around a less-though-of definition.
2. Young people hate republicans. Like, I know it's dumb analysis, but I can't help but think Trump's army would be the first geriatric army. Idk, just seems like a fundamental issue in trying to start a civil war.
I think we're quite close to having a national police force- 88% of local law enforcement vote Republican, 7% Libertarian. This should alarm folks a lot more. A powerful unifying force(Trump) with direct orders to consolidate and centralize their collective power and we have a nightmare scenario.
Sounds like we're in line for more "Kidnap the liberal governor" militia terrorism and/or "shoot into crowds of minorities" (a la El Paso) then pitched battles. Pretty bad obviously but at least the FBI has been able to break up terror networks so far
I agree with the gist of this but I have a pet peeve here. The vast majority of violence in 2020 has come from the Marxist left. They have committed more violence and property damage in a typical weekend in major cities throughout the country than Trump supporters have done all year, combined. Yet they never get mentioned in civil-war discussions. It seems to me that the real risk of civil-war is if one of them gets into a power, a Bernie on steroids, and tries to get real hard leftist sh through on the thinnest margins. Gun confiscation, property redistribution on racial grounds, CRT run amock, etc. and the right just refuses. That seems far riskier than anything Trump is doing and more likely.
The usual TDS fantasies leading to a disappointingly thin and vacuous discussion centred on the ridiculous possibility of a generalissimo style coup based on personalities.
But nearly all wars and civil wars (including most separatisms, as opposed to rebellions from below), happen because someone can fund them, they are conflicts between factions of the elites (sometimes actually funded and supported by foreign elites).
In the USA civil war it was not the USA armed forces that split, but their ruling elites, and the same happened in Spain, China, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Lybia, Yemen, etc. (the one in the Ukraine is a rebeelion instead). Various sections of the armed forces then follow their paymasters.
There is zero short or medium term risk that any substantial faction of the business and finance elites of the USA would reckon that it would profit them to fight physically over economic issues. Can you imagine the proprietors of Wal*mart or Google, or Blackrock or Bank of America deciding to fund a civil war, when they profit so much from "business as usual" in a large continental market?
One thing I've been thinking more-and-more about is the degree to which Evangelical Millenarian thinking has infected the GOP
Given that the decline in American Christianity has mostly been among Mainline Protestant churches, the broader Christian community in the US is more dominated by Evangelicals than it has been in the past.
This dominance became politically relevant thanks to the strong association of Evangelicals with the GOP.
Finally, unlike during the Reagan years when the number of irreligious people was very small, the current Evangelical movement sees itself opposed by what they see as a godless, cosmopolitan enemy. The political affiliation of Evangelicals with the GOP means that this end-times thinking becomes transposed onto broader political conflicts hence increased talk to civil war, genocide etc.
The US has 50 states. Most of them have a very clear color - red or blue. So secession can be the reaction to a violent constitutional crisis. California may secede if Trump is declared the winner without actually winning. And I doubt the possibility that Republicans will fight to keep California in the union as Lincoln did. They may say: good riddance.
Two things:
1. Loved the framing of civil war around a less-though-of definition.
2. Young people hate republicans. Like, I know it's dumb analysis, but I can't help but think Trump's army would be the first geriatric army. Idk, just seems like a fundamental issue in trying to start a civil war.
3. Baby-boomer morality is accelerating, and I can't help but wonder how we under-sell the generational shift going on will have massive effects on politics: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/28/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers-as-americas-largest-generation/ (Maybe it already is.....)
you made the memeorandum feed with this article fyi
I think we're quite close to having a national police force- 88% of local law enforcement vote Republican, 7% Libertarian. This should alarm folks a lot more. A powerful unifying force(Trump) with direct orders to consolidate and centralize their collective power and we have a nightmare scenario.
Sounds like we're in line for more "Kidnap the liberal governor" militia terrorism and/or "shoot into crowds of minorities" (a la El Paso) then pitched battles. Pretty bad obviously but at least the FBI has been able to break up terror networks so far
I agree with the gist of this but I have a pet peeve here. The vast majority of violence in 2020 has come from the Marxist left. They have committed more violence and property damage in a typical weekend in major cities throughout the country than Trump supporters have done all year, combined. Yet they never get mentioned in civil-war discussions. It seems to me that the real risk of civil-war is if one of them gets into a power, a Bernie on steroids, and tries to get real hard leftist sh through on the thinnest margins. Gun confiscation, property redistribution on racial grounds, CRT run amock, etc. and the right just refuses. That seems far riskier than anything Trump is doing and more likely.
The usual TDS fantasies leading to a disappointingly thin and vacuous discussion centred on the ridiculous possibility of a generalissimo style coup based on personalities.
But nearly all wars and civil wars (including most separatisms, as opposed to rebellions from below), happen because someone can fund them, they are conflicts between factions of the elites (sometimes actually funded and supported by foreign elites).
In the USA civil war it was not the USA armed forces that split, but their ruling elites, and the same happened in Spain, China, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Lybia, Yemen, etc. (the one in the Ukraine is a rebeelion instead). Various sections of the armed forces then follow their paymasters.
There is zero short or medium term risk that any substantial faction of the business and finance elites of the USA would reckon that it would profit them to fight physically over economic issues. Can you imagine the proprietors of Wal*mart or Google, or Blackrock or Bank of America deciding to fund a civil war, when they profit so much from "business as usual" in a large continental market?
One thing I've been thinking more-and-more about is the degree to which Evangelical Millenarian thinking has infected the GOP
Given that the decline in American Christianity has mostly been among Mainline Protestant churches, the broader Christian community in the US is more dominated by Evangelicals than it has been in the past.
https://www.pewforum.org/2019/10/17/in-u-s-decline-of-christianity-continues-at-rapid-pace/
This dominance became politically relevant thanks to the strong association of Evangelicals with the GOP.
Finally, unlike during the Reagan years when the number of irreligious people was very small, the current Evangelical movement sees itself opposed by what they see as a godless, cosmopolitan enemy. The political affiliation of Evangelicals with the GOP means that this end-times thinking becomes transposed onto broader political conflicts hence increased talk to civil war, genocide etc.
Initial Answer Before reading article. No... no way. See reply for post article response.
The US has 50 states. Most of them have a very clear color - red or blue. So secession can be the reaction to a violent constitutional crisis. California may secede if Trump is declared the winner without actually winning. And I doubt the possibility that Republicans will fight to keep California in the union as Lincoln did. They may say: good riddance.