71 Comments
Jul 14, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

If anybody is curious, the average productivity in the US is 2-6 tons of corn per acre. Cuba has 1 ton per acre, in other words between 50-15% of US productivity.

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Leftist: Cuba isn't an example of why communism is bad because the US hurt them with sanctions.

Normie: Doesn't that prove international trade and more open markets are good?

Leftist: ....noOooOoo......

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Jul 14, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

It's kind of funny that every accounting of communist countries tends to leave out Portugal and Kerala (Indian states are largely autonomous.) The communist parties in those two places are hugely influential. The difference from other places is that they're also solidly democratic.

Perhaps the issue isn't fundamentally communism vs. socialism vs. capitalism, but democracy vs. autocracy.

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Jul 14, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

Loved this piece.

Have you ever thought writing about Turkey? At the moment it’s a going through a currency crisis of its own. Obviously not as bad as Cuba’s, and probably won’t get to that level, I hope, but they kind of cornered themselves in the hopes of shoring up the Lira and securing another election.

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If you want to read about a crazy currency system read Andrew Holloway's "A Year in Pyongyang." In the 70s/80s DPRK had their internal currency, the currency they gave Westerners, and a third for those from Soviet countries, all with different official and black market exchange rates. I think they called them green won, blue won, and red won. Cigarettes were almost a separate currency unto themselves.

Overall that book is a phenomenal detailed travelogue about a British communist/juche idealist getting a job in North Korea and uh... changing some of his views.

It's free online, though it would be worth buying if it weren't: http://www.aidanfc.net/?page_id=54

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The egg rationing numbers don’t seem to add up. If Cuba produces 2.4 billion eggs a year, then with its 11 million population, that should work out to 220 eggs per person per year. That would imply a ration of 18 eggs per person per month, substantially more than the official ration of 5. Where are the remaining eggs going?

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Jul 14, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

Mr. Noah, I have a question regarding the last paragraph. What is the danger in the US just reversing it's refugee policy and allowing them in?

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If socialism doesn’t work, why have we been imposing restrictions for so long?

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Jul 14, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

Great article.

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Jul 14, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

Great article. Agree with the solutions.

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Jul 14, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

Great article

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Ok, lets go with the assertion that even though the world's most powerful and vindictive country has been out to screw you for 50 years, it hasn't made any difference to your economic performance or potential.

Instead let's speculate on this: if the US were to lift the sanctions and change its obstructive policies, would that make any difference to conditions in Cuba?

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Great piece, having spent a bit of time in Cuba it seems pretty astute. One thing to note is how successfully the embargo has become the villain, and indeed is used in propaganda in Cuba (and abroad) as such. It's ended up being a fantastic tool for Cuba-regime sympathisers everywhere to just blame the US and give the Cuban gov's shitty and corrupt policies a pass.

As for the advance to capitalism, isn't one thing giving potential investors pause the idea that a pre-revolutionary property claimant is going to materialise? I'd be reluctant to sink cash into something that I might not legally own....

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“Probably not. Cuba can and does export stuff to China and Europe, but it runs a chronic huge trade deficit”

I agree that the peg is the issue in terms of foreign exchange, but trade between the US and Cuba would likely be much more valuable than their trade with Europe and China. That’s because trade kind of resembles gravity and economic size and distance explain a lot of trade variation around the world. Basically the US has a huge economy and is super close and so would likely become Cuba’s largest trading partner barring the embargo.

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I don't follow the Cuba situation so I can't comment on the merits, or otherwise, of the author's arguments. However, concerning the US economic sanctions - It begs the question doesn't it? If the US unilateral sanctions are so inconsequential or ineffective or immaterial to Cuba's economic wellbeing, why even have them? Particularly when the international community is overwhelmingly against them.

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Thanks for the thorough, well-researched post Noahpinion. As a Cuban American democrat it's been frustrating seeing people on the right and far left scream half-truths at eachother with little discussion of what would actually help in the long term. While I agree with you that ending the embargo would be the set of action on behalf of the Cuban people, I am honestly not sure if it truly lead to China style liberalization of the Cuban economy. You added a level of precision to what is necessary for that kind of liberalization by mentioning the need for foreign investors instead of just internal free markets. On that point, what is it that has stopped the other top 5 economic partners from having investors in Cuba? If they do invest, why hasn't it lead to liberalization already? Perhaps it is about beating out Chinese investors which may be more capable of working with illiberal economies via support from their government.

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