I'd really like to see that graph of the real estate sector as a % of the economy pushed back another decade or so, to see what Japan looked like in the Crichton-panic era.
The party doesn't think it can afford a recession. So they're making the bet that they can reduce reliance on unproductive sectors without letting companies fail and their stakeholders suffering economic consequences. But that creates the same moral hazards that allowed those sectors to become so prevalent.
Maybe they can thread the needle. Maybe they can't. I suspect the task is too delicate and complicated, but might be wrong.
So if the party kicks this can down the road forever, productivity falls as everyone spends all their time and energy HODLing real estate. Any other examples where something like this has happened?
>> Obviously Xi will arrange things so that his friends and allies within the Party get to keep the real estate and related assets that hold their value, while sticking political enemies with the assets that go to zero. But the real question is how many “friends of Xi” there are and how many get left on the outside.
Also, Xi may not be able to perfectly allocate said assets to his friends.
One question I have is - are there limits to the government's ability to keep the growth going? Can they keep taking on more debt as necessary, or does it run out eventually? They have control of the economy that other governments can't match, but not total control...
I'd really like to see that graph of the real estate sector as a % of the economy pushed back another decade or so, to see what Japan looked like in the Crichton-panic era.
The party doesn't think it can afford a recession. So they're making the bet that they can reduce reliance on unproductive sectors without letting companies fail and their stakeholders suffering economic consequences. But that creates the same moral hazards that allowed those sectors to become so prevalent.
Maybe they can thread the needle. Maybe they can't. I suspect the task is too delicate and complicated, but might be wrong.
Noah, can you comment on how this impacts tensions and the risk of war over Taiwan?
Googling "failing chinese economy" delivers results back to 1989. Sooner or later such predictions will be correct.
So if the party kicks this can down the road forever, productivity falls as everyone spends all their time and energy HODLing real estate. Any other examples where something like this has happened?
>> Obviously Xi will arrange things so that his friends and allies within the Party get to keep the real estate and related assets that hold their value, while sticking political enemies with the assets that go to zero. But the real question is how many “friends of Xi” there are and how many get left on the outside.
Also, Xi may not be able to perfectly allocate said assets to his friends.
One question I have is - are there limits to the government's ability to keep the growth going? Can they keep taking on more debt as necessary, or does it run out eventually? They have control of the economy that other governments can't match, but not total control...