Video interview: David Shor, political data scientist
The whiz-kid political analyst explains why Democrats need to talk about bread-and-butter issues
As political analysts go, David Shor is something of a wunderkind. He slices the data, he dices the data, he extracts insights that other analysts miss! Sometimes his fealty to the numbers instead of the narrative lands him in hot water, but he’s managed to craft a unifying theory of American politics that seems to be slowly winning converts (a phenomenon known in some circles as “Shorpilling”. Also, the long hair is really working for him, in my opinion.
In this hour-long interview, we discuss a bunch of fun political topics, including:
Why Bernie Sanders lost
Why some Hispanics shifted to the GOP in 2020, and whether Democrats should be worried
What kind of issues Democrats should emphasize
How liberal or conservative America really is
Whether the surge of pro-immigration sentiment is real
Whether and how elites drive changes in mass opinion
…and much more!
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I think he really hits on something when he starts talking more broadly (on context of the Hispanic shift) about the working class/educated divide. Remember: it used to be that the working class was not a good fit at all for Republicans. They were seen as “fat cats” who didn’t give a shit. When you thought about the Republicans you knew in real life, perhaps as a working class person you’d think of the big dog bosses at your company who were too good to talk to you or ever really acknowledge you.
Now.... my how things have changed, and I think Trump helped accelerate the cultural shift that was already happening with the working class. Look, here’s the deal: I know lots of working class people, and if you want them to look at you like you have two heads tell them how great of a President you think Hilary Clinton would have been. You’ll get laughed at probably 9 times out of 10. And since Hispanics are much more likely to be working class vs whites in this country, and the churches they attend also don’t have the traditional Dem backing that blacks get, Hispanics are getting it: they increasingly have more in common with working class GOP voters than the college educated Dems. This is going to be tough to be reverse I think, but you never in politics. Things can change quickly with the right candidates/message.
Noah, excellent interview with Shor (and I've read quite a few Shor interviews by this time!) He makes a lot of important points in this one that deserve wide circulation. I wonder if you have thought about posting a transcript of the conversation--that might help bring the very enlightening discussion to more people. Btw, great job with the substack in general; I consistently find that your newsletters provide useful analysis and data about stuff I'm interested in. Keep up the good work!