One day I would like to see you game out a Universal Healthcare Insurance. Would it be mandatory, or would it cover a minimum thus having employers providing extra benefits. How would you convince people to go for it? Lots of people like their private insurance. Or maybe just a plan that covers people without it... would there be income limits? costs based on income?
Anyway,. besides the point. Unlike most of twitter, i am not outraged over the 600.... I didnt even get the 1200.... long story, but military retirement counts against you (did you know that if you have a military pension and get laid off, you get zero UI benefits... even though we pay in)
Its the 300 plus up to UI that is the key aspect. Having had a wife and daughter on UI this year, 600 was a little too generous... I think 300 is the right amount I think. Yes, some of you will disagree, Im talking about my perspective. Both wife and daughter got a raise being on UI.
It was a lot bigger and more generous that I expected with a Republican senate, but thats a good thing.
I have mixed feelings about the workfare issue. I am a natural conservative who believes that work gives people purpose and we should incentive it as much as possible, but Im also a big softie who doesnt want to see people suffer.
My ex-wife is English and I lived there for a four years. My son lives there. Living off the dole was a thing... in fact my ex-wife was basically raised on the dole. Im not sure if there was any change in the last decade, but it certainly made we wary of the system.
Having also lived in Germany and Holland, I do see the advantages of getting it right. Holland especially impressed me as squared away system.
Im actually coming around to UBI... I have questions... devils advocate type, but I am certainly interested.
Hopefully this vaccine will get things going pretty quickly, and we can get back to robust employment.
Also... tax the rich. The rich being anyone making more than me by 100K.
Good one Noah. I think your point about it not being a "stimulus" is an important one. We are not yet in a conventional demand-side driven recession. We are still in a lockdown and virus-driven recession. On the demand side, there are people unable to find jobs at least for the most part due to the pandemic uncertainty. On the supply side, there can be a destruction of economic potential due to bankruptcies and permanent closures. We need UI/checks in the meanwhile to minimize hardship for the ones on temporary layoff or underemployed and PPP to minimize destruction of economic potential. As J. Powell said it best in the last press conference:
" now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, it would be bad to see people losing their business, their life's work in many cases, or even generations worth of work because they
couldn't last another few months, which is what it amounts to."
Are there any surveys on how much of the pandemic related saving some households have done will be spent next year? Will the money saved not commuting and not consuming recreation in 2020 will come back in significant excess of what would have already been spent in 2021?
This is a perfect complement to your post about tech-induced social unrest.
Will it be impossible to avoid protests if misinformation runs faster than truth?
I'm curious about the idea that stimulus is what we do after everyone is working again.
Do you think that deficit spending should continue until the economy has recovered its 2019 GDP? Or until unemployment has gone back to 3%?
What about countries with an already sizeable debt service as a percentage of GDP and interest payments greater than the growth rate?
I personally think that as long as the Fed doesn't increase rates, countries should take up debt and use it to boost growth through investment in physical capital, human capital, etc..
In the US, we would rather be allowed to judge who is worthy of aid, even if it means the aid distribution becomes massively inefficient. I have always found the criticism of UBI coming from the left to be odd. The same people who argue that UBI will just go straight to landlord pockets argue on the same day that higher minimum wages wont. As though landlords care if you got money from wages or from the govt'
Thusly, it does not surprise me at all that in the one time people generally reach consensus that something approaching a (paltry) UBI - it would be sufficiently remarkable that it would become the one thing people focus on.
There are something like 80 million Americans under the age of 19 - almost all are definitely not getting stimulus checks.
As for "median wages rising" - that's because low paid jobs have been murdered by lockdowns, particularly retail.
PPP: the problem with PPP isn't that some big businesses got it. That's corruption. The problem with PPP is that it reinforced the winners but did nothing to help the losers (businesses).
Does PPP help restaurants in cities that have locked down? No, it just stretches out the period where they haven't yet failed - which is bad because SF has had severe restrictions from the start and have now gone even further (no more outdoor dining at all allowed. Indoor for a short window with greatly reduced capacity).
What PPP ultimately did was cause failing business owners to lose more money but businesses that benefited - trucking for example - to reap windfalls. This isn't anecdote - I know several accountants who reported this to me.
As for stimulus and/or UI amounts: $15/hour is a munificent $30K a year. How easy is it to live in San Francisco on $30K a year?
On the other hand: if you live in Northern California or other "red" regions/states, the cost of living is enormously lower. $15/hour can be quite respectable in Wichita, Kansas where the median rent is $600/month...
One day I would like to see you game out a Universal Healthcare Insurance. Would it be mandatory, or would it cover a minimum thus having employers providing extra benefits. How would you convince people to go for it? Lots of people like their private insurance. Or maybe just a plan that covers people without it... would there be income limits? costs based on income?
Anyway,. besides the point. Unlike most of twitter, i am not outraged over the 600.... I didnt even get the 1200.... long story, but military retirement counts against you (did you know that if you have a military pension and get laid off, you get zero UI benefits... even though we pay in)
Its the 300 plus up to UI that is the key aspect. Having had a wife and daughter on UI this year, 600 was a little too generous... I think 300 is the right amount I think. Yes, some of you will disagree, Im talking about my perspective. Both wife and daughter got a raise being on UI.
It was a lot bigger and more generous that I expected with a Republican senate, but thats a good thing.
I have mixed feelings about the workfare issue. I am a natural conservative who believes that work gives people purpose and we should incentive it as much as possible, but Im also a big softie who doesnt want to see people suffer.
My ex-wife is English and I lived there for a four years. My son lives there. Living off the dole was a thing... in fact my ex-wife was basically raised on the dole. Im not sure if there was any change in the last decade, but it certainly made we wary of the system.
Having also lived in Germany and Holland, I do see the advantages of getting it right. Holland especially impressed me as squared away system.
Im actually coming around to UBI... I have questions... devils advocate type, but I am certainly interested.
Hopefully this vaccine will get things going pretty quickly, and we can get back to robust employment.
Also... tax the rich. The rich being anyone making more than me by 100K.
Good one Noah. I think your point about it not being a "stimulus" is an important one. We are not yet in a conventional demand-side driven recession. We are still in a lockdown and virus-driven recession. On the demand side, there are people unable to find jobs at least for the most part due to the pandemic uncertainty. On the supply side, there can be a destruction of economic potential due to bankruptcies and permanent closures. We need UI/checks in the meanwhile to minimize hardship for the ones on temporary layoff or underemployed and PPP to minimize destruction of economic potential. As J. Powell said it best in the last press conference:
" now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, it would be bad to see people losing their business, their life's work in many cases, or even generations worth of work because they
couldn't last another few months, which is what it amounts to."
One thing:
- Good post. I learned a lot!
Are there any surveys on how much of the pandemic related saving some households have done will be spent next year? Will the money saved not commuting and not consuming recreation in 2020 will come back in significant excess of what would have already been spent in 2021?
This is a perfect complement to your post about tech-induced social unrest.
Will it be impossible to avoid protests if misinformation runs faster than truth?
I'm curious about the idea that stimulus is what we do after everyone is working again.
Do you think that deficit spending should continue until the economy has recovered its 2019 GDP? Or until unemployment has gone back to 3%?
What about countries with an already sizeable debt service as a percentage of GDP and interest payments greater than the growth rate?
I personally think that as long as the Fed doesn't increase rates, countries should take up debt and use it to boost growth through investment in physical capital, human capital, etc..
In the US, we would rather be allowed to judge who is worthy of aid, even if it means the aid distribution becomes massively inefficient. I have always found the criticism of UBI coming from the left to be odd. The same people who argue that UBI will just go straight to landlord pockets argue on the same day that higher minimum wages wont. As though landlords care if you got money from wages or from the govt'
Thusly, it does not surprise me at all that in the one time people generally reach consensus that something approaching a (paltry) UBI - it would be sufficiently remarkable that it would become the one thing people focus on.
There are something like 80 million Americans under the age of 19 - almost all are definitely not getting stimulus checks.
As for "median wages rising" - that's because low paid jobs have been murdered by lockdowns, particularly retail.
PPP: the problem with PPP isn't that some big businesses got it. That's corruption. The problem with PPP is that it reinforced the winners but did nothing to help the losers (businesses).
Does PPP help restaurants in cities that have locked down? No, it just stretches out the period where they haven't yet failed - which is bad because SF has had severe restrictions from the start and have now gone even further (no more outdoor dining at all allowed. Indoor for a short window with greatly reduced capacity).
What PPP ultimately did was cause failing business owners to lose more money but businesses that benefited - trucking for example - to reap windfalls. This isn't anecdote - I know several accountants who reported this to me.
As for stimulus and/or UI amounts: $15/hour is a munificent $30K a year. How easy is it to live in San Francisco on $30K a year?
On the other hand: if you live in Northern California or other "red" regions/states, the cost of living is enormously lower. $15/hour can be quite respectable in Wichita, Kansas where the median rent is $600/month...