Great piece. I always had vaguely positive feelings towards Abe as someone who seemed to be trying to really tackle Japan's problems. It's nice to have that confirmed. Even in 2017, the last time I was there, Tokyo seemed greatly changed. He was super unpopular, though, with the Japanese people I know and I think generally by the end. Hopefully history will be kinder.
I do not have the same enthusiasm for Japan that you do. I worked for the California subsidiary of Mitsubishi Bank for 8 years starting in 1992. Mitsubishi Bank and Bank of Tokyo merged in the middle of my tenure and so did their CA subs, creating Union Bank of California. All the cultural stereotypes were part of my daily existence: “the nail that sticks up gets pounded down”, ridiculous delay in providing a simple decision is actually a “no” - they just won’t actually tell you; seniority driving everything so dumb old farts outrank smart young men (no women); doing everything in a herd (all Japanese banks did the same deals) and more. The stereotypes are there for a reason - they are built into the culture. The people in CA were making a real effort. I was a young woman who rose quickly so that I was regularly dealing with the high ranking Japanese in SF. Unfortunately I then also had greater contact with people in Tokyo, London and NY (their 2 largest foreign branches). It became more and more frustrating. When trying to renew a $75 million trade line of credit for Kmart one of the “credit” questions I received from Tokyo was “what does the K in Kmart stand for?” I knew the answer (Kresge) but what does that have to do with repaying a short term line of credit? I have not seen anything in the past 25 yrs that encourages me that the culture of consensus over everything along with seniority despite incompetence has changed. I wish them well but I would never work for another Japanese company in the US and I have no desire to live in Japan.
If you were to base your next piece on the twin policies towards North and South Korea, and specifically what it would take from both sides to have friendly relations, this would be most instructive, particularly since I believe that the chances of North Korea Nuking Japan, possibly even as a favour to China to eliminate their pre-eminent East Asian based rival, is Non Zero. The fact that Japan has not unreservedly apologized to South Korea for its behaviors in Ww2 and earlier, to salvage that relationship and allow the two to present a united front against China, is also a complete mystery to many Westerners, myself included
I think the big thing Abe (and Koizumi before him to a degree) did was remove the apology culture towards Japan's neighbors. Essentially they have declared that WW2 is over and has been for 70 years so Japan needs to no longer apologise more for its deeds then. That attitude change seems to be popular in Japan and it leads to a number of other related things such as a growth in national pride which I consider positive.
This has led to a few things that surprised me. First I have never before seen SDF themed generic consumer products but recently I have seen Shochu branded "Izumo" - as in the Aircraft Carrier (or "Helicopter destroyer") rather than the province. I've also seen various ready to eat curries that are supposedly based on those served on JMSDF ships and at particular ports (Kure, Yokosuka ...)
Second there's a lot of popular support for Taiwan. It helps that Taiwan has never really tried to play the "Japan mistreated us" card that most other countries in the area have, but I think it is more than just that. There's a feeling that Taiwan is a kind of junior Japan and that Japan should encourage Taiwan and protect it. I am absolutely certain that if the PRC were to attempt to invade Taiwan Japanese public opinion would support the SDF being deployed to assist Taiwan in fighting back.
Thirdly there's a distinct anti-PRC sentiment. This seems to have grown considerably thanks to COVID. People in Japan in my interactions blame Chine for COVID and will deliberately not buy products made in China for that reason in addition to a general belief that PRC products are low quality and potentially poisonous/hazardous. That means that there has been a fair amount of support for the idea or resonhoring manufacturing that was shifted off the the PRC by Japanese firms in the past. And if that reomshiring requires Japan to import Brazillians or Vietnamese (or...) to make them in Japanese factories that's fine.
Regarding immigration, I am not sure that can be really correlated to Abe policies:
Do we have the number of applicants attracted by the highly skills residence program?
Do we have numbers for the guest workers program supposed to help sectors like construction?
Several immigrants come as students and with policies predating Abe. Things might get worse as the infamous entry ban that was during pandemic and started during his term.
Regarding women diversity, the results are mixed. Those working and going into maternity leave will face the dauting task to find place in daycare. I can understand that fixing such issue will take years but lets say we should relativize Abe policies and lets not veil the face with the infamous Abenomasks :D
Sorry, but are we actually looking at cold, hard, numbers here?
A lot of this piece is divorced from reality. For eg, what was the net result of Abenomics? As far as GDP growth and/or inflation across the 2010-2019 period is concerned, it clearly failed.
As for immigration, it goes without saying, at 2%, Japan's immigrant population (as a proportion of the total) is extremely low...to the point where it even lags neighboring South Korea. I dont understand in which universe Abe's baby steps could be deemed an achievement....or a radical change in direction given today's very paltry figures.
Fair play on the near-10% hike in female participation in the labour force. Shame it didnt have a tangible effect but still.
All Abe really did/accomplished was add impetus to the US-Japan alliance and help to balance China. Neoliberals, 'muscular' liberals, 'patriotic' liberals (or whatever else Noah is calling himself this week), weebs, etc can praise that 'achievement' and be content with it, without trying to pretend that Abe was anything but a guy who's flagship agenda flopped like a fish and who's term hardly strengthened his country.
I have lived in Japan for nearly fifty years. I certainly did not like the more unsavoury aspects of Abe's activities - revising history books, and in particular giving large amounts of money to a wholly disgraceful nationalist school - but his most important policies I generally supported.
These are really great posts and so helpful for us non-experts. Along that line, it would be really interesting to have a side-by-side comparison of the two most dominant East Asian leaders of recent years, Abe and Xi. The jury is obviously still out on the latter, but perhaps one (i.e., Noah!) could take a flyer on which one is more likely to have had ultimately the more positive and larger impact on their respective nations.
Thank you Noah, this has been an excellent series.
Great piece. I always had vaguely positive feelings towards Abe as someone who seemed to be trying to really tackle Japan's problems. It's nice to have that confirmed. Even in 2017, the last time I was there, Tokyo seemed greatly changed. He was super unpopular, though, with the Japanese people I know and I think generally by the end. Hopefully history will be kinder.
I do not have the same enthusiasm for Japan that you do. I worked for the California subsidiary of Mitsubishi Bank for 8 years starting in 1992. Mitsubishi Bank and Bank of Tokyo merged in the middle of my tenure and so did their CA subs, creating Union Bank of California. All the cultural stereotypes were part of my daily existence: “the nail that sticks up gets pounded down”, ridiculous delay in providing a simple decision is actually a “no” - they just won’t actually tell you; seniority driving everything so dumb old farts outrank smart young men (no women); doing everything in a herd (all Japanese banks did the same deals) and more. The stereotypes are there for a reason - they are built into the culture. The people in CA were making a real effort. I was a young woman who rose quickly so that I was regularly dealing with the high ranking Japanese in SF. Unfortunately I then also had greater contact with people in Tokyo, London and NY (their 2 largest foreign branches). It became more and more frustrating. When trying to renew a $75 million trade line of credit for Kmart one of the “credit” questions I received from Tokyo was “what does the K in Kmart stand for?” I knew the answer (Kresge) but what does that have to do with repaying a short term line of credit? I have not seen anything in the past 25 yrs that encourages me that the culture of consensus over everything along with seniority despite incompetence has changed. I wish them well but I would never work for another Japanese company in the US and I have no desire to live in Japan.
If you were to base your next piece on the twin policies towards North and South Korea, and specifically what it would take from both sides to have friendly relations, this would be most instructive, particularly since I believe that the chances of North Korea Nuking Japan, possibly even as a favour to China to eliminate their pre-eminent East Asian based rival, is Non Zero. The fact that Japan has not unreservedly apologized to South Korea for its behaviors in Ww2 and earlier, to salvage that relationship and allow the two to present a united front against China, is also a complete mystery to many Westerners, myself included
I think the big thing Abe (and Koizumi before him to a degree) did was remove the apology culture towards Japan's neighbors. Essentially they have declared that WW2 is over and has been for 70 years so Japan needs to no longer apologise more for its deeds then. That attitude change seems to be popular in Japan and it leads to a number of other related things such as a growth in national pride which I consider positive.
This has led to a few things that surprised me. First I have never before seen SDF themed generic consumer products but recently I have seen Shochu branded "Izumo" - as in the Aircraft Carrier (or "Helicopter destroyer") rather than the province. I've also seen various ready to eat curries that are supposedly based on those served on JMSDF ships and at particular ports (Kure, Yokosuka ...)
Second there's a lot of popular support for Taiwan. It helps that Taiwan has never really tried to play the "Japan mistreated us" card that most other countries in the area have, but I think it is more than just that. There's a feeling that Taiwan is a kind of junior Japan and that Japan should encourage Taiwan and protect it. I am absolutely certain that if the PRC were to attempt to invade Taiwan Japanese public opinion would support the SDF being deployed to assist Taiwan in fighting back.
Thirdly there's a distinct anti-PRC sentiment. This seems to have grown considerably thanks to COVID. People in Japan in my interactions blame Chine for COVID and will deliberately not buy products made in China for that reason in addition to a general belief that PRC products are low quality and potentially poisonous/hazardous. That means that there has been a fair amount of support for the idea or resonhoring manufacturing that was shifted off the the PRC by Japanese firms in the past. And if that reomshiring requires Japan to import Brazillians or Vietnamese (or...) to make them in Japanese factories that's fine.
Regarding immigration, I am not sure that can be really correlated to Abe policies:
Do we have the number of applicants attracted by the highly skills residence program?
Do we have numbers for the guest workers program supposed to help sectors like construction?
Several immigrants come as students and with policies predating Abe. Things might get worse as the infamous entry ban that was during pandemic and started during his term.
Regarding women diversity, the results are mixed. Those working and going into maternity leave will face the dauting task to find place in daycare. I can understand that fixing such issue will take years but lets say we should relativize Abe policies and lets not veil the face with the infamous Abenomasks :D
Sorry, but are we actually looking at cold, hard, numbers here?
A lot of this piece is divorced from reality. For eg, what was the net result of Abenomics? As far as GDP growth and/or inflation across the 2010-2019 period is concerned, it clearly failed.
As for immigration, it goes without saying, at 2%, Japan's immigrant population (as a proportion of the total) is extremely low...to the point where it even lags neighboring South Korea. I dont understand in which universe Abe's baby steps could be deemed an achievement....or a radical change in direction given today's very paltry figures.
Fair play on the near-10% hike in female participation in the labour force. Shame it didnt have a tangible effect but still.
All Abe really did/accomplished was add impetus to the US-Japan alliance and help to balance China. Neoliberals, 'muscular' liberals, 'patriotic' liberals (or whatever else Noah is calling himself this week), weebs, etc can praise that 'achievement' and be content with it, without trying to pretend that Abe was anything but a guy who's flagship agenda flopped like a fish and who's term hardly strengthened his country.
Exceptional series, Noah. Thank you.
Hope to see a follow up, post assassination! How very sad.
I am surprised an (American) economist would write this: "He was only in power for 8 years — long by Japanese standards but average for the U.S."
"Typical" - fine, but "average"?
Interesting article. If nothing else, Abe is complex.
The influence of two cults - a Shinto subsect, and The Unification Church will seem to compete for the narrative of his legacy.
https://twitter.com/nezumi_ningen/status/1545544332559749121?t=SrP09WJPKfZsIb9wmjG6Ww&s=19
Did those jobless people really "create" (rather than just consume) that culture?
I have lived in Japan for nearly fifty years. I certainly did not like the more unsavoury aspects of Abe's activities - revising history books, and in particular giving large amounts of money to a wholly disgraceful nationalist school - but his most important policies I generally supported.
Really enjoyed this series! Do you happen to have any numbers that show the extent to which Japan and China are economically dependent on each other?
These are really great posts and so helpful for us non-experts. Along that line, it would be really interesting to have a side-by-side comparison of the two most dominant East Asian leaders of recent years, Abe and Xi. The jury is obviously still out on the latter, but perhaps one (i.e., Noah!) could take a flyer on which one is more likely to have had ultimately the more positive and larger impact on their respective nations.
shinzo abe is not a dictator
your level of analysis is naive and unremarkable
it is however true that japan has had significant social changes in last 20 years
most of them not for the better.