34 Comments
Feb 5, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

The rise of renewables figures in here too. Oil is dying, which reduces our incentive to start wars/destabilize that part of the world.

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Feb 5, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

Really nice insight. I think the idea of the conflict being foisted on to others is An interesting one. Africa is a pretty fast growing area for Islamic radicals but It doesn't get a lot of attention.

a few years ago, I remember Counting about 27 independent Islamic terrorist movements throughout the world and I wasn't including Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya. There could be more now that they've made it gains in Africa. ISIS is still putting out great videos though, excellent production quality!

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Feb 5, 2021Liked by Noah Smith

Excellent analysis. Masterful piece.

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Today at dinner my dad—an immigrant from a Muslim country—remarked (in defending Biden): “you can’t just take everyone on the plane, some of those people could be terrorists!” This is a guy who has done work in Afghanistan for almost 20 years. Is some lady in Kansas a racist for having the same reaction as my dad did? No!

It’s a huge mistake to conflate refugees with the educated legal immigrants that comprise the vast majority of American Muslims. Most people in the Middle East (75%) wouldn’t immigrate to another country even if they had the choice: https://news.gallup.com/poll/245255/750-million-worldwide-migrate.aspx. The people who immigrate are quite different than the rest. By contrast, refugees leave because they are forced to. They’re a different group with a different mentality.

European countries have had significant problems with Muslim refugees. Radicalization is a real problem. We are lucky not to have that problem with American Muslims, but that’s because our Muslim population is H1Bs who come here because they want to be American.

Your article makes little sense. In 2003, terrorists killed 3,000 Americans in the name of Islam. That was most Americans’ first exposure to Islam. Since then, we haven’t had any major terrorist attacks. That explains why people have become more positive on Islam in general. But accepting refugees from terrorist hot zones (Syria, Afghanistan) still raises alarm. You see this as a sign of racism, but it’s entirely consistent with non-racist people learning to better separate Islam from terrorism. That’s a good thing!

Being worried about poor immigrants bringing over crime from their homeland isn’t unreasonable. 100 years ago, Americans were worried about Italians bringing over organized crime. And maybe that was overblown—but we did actually have the Italian mafia conducting hits in broad daylight in NYC until we got it under control in the 1980s. It’s unlikely that would have happened without Italian immigration. (France and Germany never had a similar organized crime problem.) Dismissing that concern as “racism” is unjustified.

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Muslims are only 1% of the US population but compose 10% of total physicians. The rise in the Muslim professional class makes it much harder to hate someone who is a colleague or friend.

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While I see the point you are trying to make I fail to see 9% of Pakistanis, 14% of Nigerians, 8% of Turks, etc., supporting ISIS as a positive. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad those numbers aren't higher but I still find it alarming, not reassuring.

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Well written article. As a muslim, i feel the biggest failure of the 9/11 strategy was lumping all muslims as one.

Each muslim shouldve have been judged by its ethnicity. Muslims from some countries were more prone to terrorism than others as their was a regional conflict involved.

Turkish and indian and indonesian muslims wernt involved at all.

Pakistanis algerians moroccans afghans more so.

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US military still in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.....difficult to say the war is over or that the Syrian civil war is a proxy war between Turkey, Russia/Iran with a straight face

The War against terror was the quintessential bait to the middle east tar baby which the US decided to get embroiled in with its eyes wide open despite that being OBL's publicly stated objective...For as long as the US remains hostage to actions of local forces in Afghanistan and Iraq,Syria and Yemen (how did I forget that) the war didn't end it just morphed into something else, exactly like the 30 yrs war did

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Do you (or any commentators) have any recommendations for good writers working on foreign policy right now? I used to be really interested in foreign policy when I was in college (it was my specialization for my poli sci major!) but I’ve sort of dropped out of paying a lot of attention in the last decade or so. I feel kind of embarrassed I wasn’t initially sure how to feel about Biden’s announcement of our withdrawal from Yemen because I just didn’t know enough about the situation, and I want to remedy that!

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Interesting article.. Just something I wanted to have discussion on though..

I think that muslims as an individuals are just like people from other religions, they care about prosperity and well being of themselves and their family. But mob of muslims is something to be fearful of.. Does that make me Islamophobic? Yes.. Does that mean I hate muslims? No.. I know I shouldn't be Islamophobic but then there is one simple fact that undercuts all my liberal thoughts..

There is not a single Muslim majority country where minority is more than say 10%.. and in almost all of Muslim majority countries, minority share is actually declining.. Yes it is because of generally high fertility rate in Muslims but there also innumerable accounts of forceful conversions like in the case of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh..

Even in India, Indian state lost control of Kashmir province temporarily in 90s and that period saw mass scale expulsion of Kashmiri Pandits and countless lost their lives too..

Although I am hopeful that the recent changes in Saudi Arabia and UAE will lead to qualitative change in reduction of radicalism but we also saw that in the case of Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and Lebanon which had a relative liberal regime in 60s and 70s turn towards theocracy. Maybe there needs to be reinterpretation of Quranic verses like new and old testament.. Hopefully just as radical Wahhabism which emanated from Saudi Arabia in 70s and 80s which led to radicalism in Islamic world, current moderate regime and progressive ideas in Saudi Arabia will lead to moderate Muslims be in driving seat.

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I wonder if this article turned out to be a bad prediction? I'm sure the massive Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 will have caused a resurgence of Islamophobia throughout the Western world, with the strong performance of Geert Wilders's party in the Netherlands almost certainly being a result of this.

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Late to this article, but I think part of the de-focus on Muslims by Trump was due to his close relationship with Saudi Arabia. It's hard to be anti-Muslim and taking so much of their money.

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A note: I watched that video of Lieutenant Moath Youssef al-Kasasbeh being ostensibly burned alive by ISIS and it struck me as really strange. He was very calm for a man about to be turned into cinders. And the movement of his body seemed very artificial. The flames were improbable-looking. I Googled for some skeptical analysis, and this one linked here (however credible) rings true. Was this actually a horrific "snuff film," or just a semi-slick piece of CGI propaganda? It doesn't detract from your point, as even if the video was fake, the impact to ISIS was very real: http://www.thomaswictor.com/the-jordanian-pilot-was-not-burned-alive/

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Thank you for un-paywalling this. Very thorough discussion. The conservative turn away from "enemies" abroad to "enemies" at home (e.g., "the Squad") is certainly ominous.

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Well written article. As a muslim, i feel the biggest failure of the 9/11 strategy was lumping all muslims as one.

Each muslim shouldve have been judged by its ethnicity. Muslims from some countries were more prone to terrorism than others as their was a regional conflict involved.

Turkish and indian and indonesian muslims wernt involved at all.

Pakistanis algerians moroccans afghans more so.

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It's interesting how American Muslims were never as radicalised as, say, French ones. (I think the populations are about the same size). Clearly supports historical and social effects being more important than religious ones, but I'm not sure in what way. France has a more generous welfare state for example, so the classic argument about misplaced class anger seems less likely. America's more vibrant job market was probably better, since people need meaning more than money.

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