Jamaica is an interesting over-performer in global music - things like reggae, ska, dub, early hip-hop, etc. all emerged there before taking over the world. Does this show up in any way in GDP? If not, is there any way it could be used to do so?
Interesting article about Jamaica, maybe cover kenya as your next country(pretty strong gdp per capita growth in the past decade, but mainly via an expansion in services not manufacturing).
Maybe it's just me but I feel like land reform is under-discussed when it seems like it is the most important ingredient. I'm sure actual economists and economic historians write about land reform but I basically never see it mentioned in Twitter/blogosphere/Economist/Atlantic/etc as something that NGOs, UN, US government, and so on should be pushing for.
Maybe because the US (and the UK?) never really had to do it (which feel like major outliers?) so the Anglosphere commentariat doesn't talk about it much?
This would have been a stronger essay if you had explained why it is irrelevant that Barbados is an important international tax haven. A "tax haven" means: plutocrats hold international assets including personal assets like yachts and mansions but also just shares in the S&P 500 in a trust, company, or foundation established in Barbados. Barbados has tax treaties with jurisdictions like the U.S., so there is no double taxation, but Barbados taxes are low: 0-5% on profits, 0% on capital gains. Those gains are attributed to the nominally Barbados-based entities and count toward GDP, do they not?
I'm not complaining about the observations on Jamaica per se, so this doesn't vitiate them. But you did raise the comparison!
I'm just looking at some rough numbers but in dollar terms, Jamaica's largest export by far is tourism, not bauxite.
Tourist expenditures in 2019 came to $3.64 billion, whereas bauxite was something like $200 million. Noranda Bauxite, the sole exporter, shipped 3.8 million tonnes in 2019 and the price then was around $50 per tonne:
Very interesting piece; my impression was that Barbados' politics was better than Jamaica's at getting magnates collaboration so large projects served national as well as coporate interests. Noah's comments about terrible land tenure arrangements very well taken (see as a consequence exceptionally poor housing conditions for low income population). One major omission: export potential for Busha Brown's Burnt Orange Marmalade! Contender for best marmalade in known universe.
"Jamaican manufacturing of talent; a number of the country’s richest and most well-educated people are engaged in relatively unproductive landlording instead of starting the next Hyundai or Samsung."
I don't think random people just start Samsung or Hyundai without being connected at the highest levels of government.
This is a very interesting and balanced analysis. I think that the "help" from China is as suspect as that of the USA in the 1960s. Jamaica has lost control of the headwaters of important rivers by the previous govt offering China the land surrounding the toll road. Only intense lobbying by local environmental groups (and repeated robberies of imported Chinese workers) delayed the destruction of a very delicate ecological area which had been protected. At least under colonialism, it was clear that England was using its colonies for its own glory. Hopefully, Jamaica hasn't sold too much of itself to China and there will be a commitment by wealthy Jamaicans to new opportunities available through education, the environment and technology.
Why would Jamaicans give up comfortable middle incomes as you describe to suffer in the garment industry? To chase the dream of growth? They live in a tropical paradise with comfortable middle incomes as you say. That’s enough. Sounds like retirement to me. Regarding the poverty class the US, Canada, Europe we all have poverty people, Jamaica will too.
The thing about the bauxite is that if you wanted to try to process it locally instead of shipping it abroad, you'd need to come up with a massive energy source. Refining bauxite into aluminum is _hugely_ heat intensive. Iceland has solved this by tapping its immense geothermal resources. One would think Jamaica could do it with solar and wind, although unless they also had energy storage you'd then be subject to variable output. And you'd need to harden those resources against hurricanes, so they don't have to be rebuilt once a decade or more.
Let’s do African countries next. I would love to learn more about Ghana, Botswana, and Nigeria.
Jamaica is an interesting over-performer in global music - things like reggae, ska, dub, early hip-hop, etc. all emerged there before taking over the world. Does this show up in any way in GDP? If not, is there any way it could be used to do so?
Interesting article about Jamaica, maybe cover kenya as your next country(pretty strong gdp per capita growth in the past decade, but mainly via an expansion in services not manufacturing).
Putting the bauxite royalties into a sovereign wealth fund could be good. Free press and democracy to keep ‘em honest.
I enjoyed reading this.
If you are taking suggestions for another country, I am biased in requesting Guyana. It’s kindof important to the health of my pension.
Maybe it's just me but I feel like land reform is under-discussed when it seems like it is the most important ingredient. I'm sure actual economists and economic historians write about land reform but I basically never see it mentioned in Twitter/blogosphere/Economist/Atlantic/etc as something that NGOs, UN, US government, and so on should be pushing for.
Maybe because the US (and the UK?) never really had to do it (which feel like major outliers?) so the Anglosphere commentariat doesn't talk about it much?
This would have been a stronger essay if you had explained why it is irrelevant that Barbados is an important international tax haven. A "tax haven" means: plutocrats hold international assets including personal assets like yachts and mansions but also just shares in the S&P 500 in a trust, company, or foundation established in Barbados. Barbados has tax treaties with jurisdictions like the U.S., so there is no double taxation, but Barbados taxes are low: 0-5% on profits, 0% on capital gains. Those gains are attributed to the nominally Barbados-based entities and count toward GDP, do they not?
I'm not complaining about the observations on Jamaica per se, so this doesn't vitiate them. But you did raise the comparison!
I'm just looking at some rough numbers but in dollar terms, Jamaica's largest export by far is tourism, not bauxite.
Tourist expenditures in 2019 came to $3.64 billion, whereas bauxite was something like $200 million. Noranda Bauxite, the sole exporter, shipped 3.8 million tonnes in 2019 and the price then was around $50 per tonne:
https://jis.gov.jm/jamaica-earned-us3-64-billion-from-tourism-in-2019-welcomed-4-3-million-visitors/
https://www.alcircle.com/news/noranda-bauxite-confirms-3-8-million-tonnes-export-in-2019-showers-positive-update-50961
So the source of the Dutch disease is definitely tourism, not mining.
Very interesting piece; my impression was that Barbados' politics was better than Jamaica's at getting magnates collaboration so large projects served national as well as coporate interests. Noah's comments about terrible land tenure arrangements very well taken (see as a consequence exceptionally poor housing conditions for low income population). One major omission: export potential for Busha Brown's Burnt Orange Marmalade! Contender for best marmalade in known universe.
"Jamaican manufacturing of talent; a number of the country’s richest and most well-educated people are engaged in relatively unproductive landlording instead of starting the next Hyundai or Samsung."
I don't think random people just start Samsung or Hyundai without being connected at the highest levels of government.
😎$$GREATE.'S.,.$$SLAMME.'S $$DAMNE.'S $$JAMME.'S $$ALLE.'S $$GAME.'S $$EVERYE.'S $$GAME.'S $$TRUTHE.'S $$ISE.'S $$JUMPEBALLE.'S $$FUMBLE.'S $$THANKE.'S.,.©©©®®®.
This is a very interesting and balanced analysis. I think that the "help" from China is as suspect as that of the USA in the 1960s. Jamaica has lost control of the headwaters of important rivers by the previous govt offering China the land surrounding the toll road. Only intense lobbying by local environmental groups (and repeated robberies of imported Chinese workers) delayed the destruction of a very delicate ecological area which had been protected. At least under colonialism, it was clear that England was using its colonies for its own glory. Hopefully, Jamaica hasn't sold too much of itself to China and there will be a commitment by wealthy Jamaicans to new opportunities available through education, the environment and technology.
Why would Jamaicans give up comfortable middle incomes as you describe to suffer in the garment industry? To chase the dream of growth? They live in a tropical paradise with comfortable middle incomes as you say. That’s enough. Sounds like retirement to me. Regarding the poverty class the US, Canada, Europe we all have poverty people, Jamaica will too.
The thing about the bauxite is that if you wanted to try to process it locally instead of shipping it abroad, you'd need to come up with a massive energy source. Refining bauxite into aluminum is _hugely_ heat intensive. Iceland has solved this by tapping its immense geothermal resources. One would think Jamaica could do it with solar and wind, although unless they also had energy storage you'd then be subject to variable output. And you'd need to harden those resources against hurricanes, so they don't have to be rebuilt once a decade or more.
Please do the U.S. next. What worked for it and similarities of it with emerging economies.
The government needs to get with the program of land reform,!they just talk but not much action.