With regard to stuff like the Hispanic swing in places like Texas and Florida, it's always important to keep in mind that the label "Hispanic" contains multitudes.
I've done a lot of work in the parts of South Texas between Laredo and Presidio and have become fascinated with the area and the people (some of the friendliest I've met anywhere, for that matter). It's one of most ethnically homogenous regions in the whole country. *Everyone* (well, 95% of people) is/are of Mexican ancestry. Not only the working poor and middle classes but cops, border guards, city councilors and mayors, bureaucrats, local notables and landowners, etc. While it's certainly a poor area and people complain quite a bit about the neglect Austin shows it, talk about White Privilege, micro-aggressions, and other woke-isms fall flat for the simple reason that it doesn't make context within the sense of everyday life. They just seem more like more crazy ideas from Austin liberals. Combine that with the fact that a lot of the population is devoutly Catholic (or increasingly Evangelical) it's easy to see why the Republican party increasingly appeals.
It's a different story among Hispanics in Los Angeles, for instance, where a much more solid sense of non-white identity and more leftist political orientation prevail. (Hispanics in Texas and Florida are way more likely to consider themselves white than in California or Washington State. In Florida's case that makes some sense since so many Cubans are of very recent Spanish extraction/immigrant descent but I don't know what to make of Texas.)
It's true that violent coup attempts in the US are likely to end in failure. Relatedly, without a doubt the GOP is fortunate indeed the death toll last month wasn't higher. Can you imagine if dozens or several hundred had died, including members of Congress? The rebuke would have been swift and far more forceful than the milquetoast measures we've seen so far (perhaps Pence would have invoked the 25th; perhaps the Senate would have held conducted a shotgun impeachment trial, who knows?)
But I think the above glosses over the real danger: a political/legal coup. Already we're seeing reports of various state-level GOP organizations being purged of non-Trumpists. Liz Cheney has apparently been censored by her state party. That nutty Qanon representative from Georgia received a standing ovation from her Republican colleagues.
It's clear the Trump team didn't have enough help from state GOP officials in their efforts to steal the election. But who's comfortable assuming it will transpire this way next time? Moreover, a significant majority of Republicans in Congress voted against certifying Joe Biden's Electoral College victory. Just imagine if both chambers were dominated by healthy Republican majorities. Is anyone really confident Biden will be *allowed* to secure a second term if that's the case in January of 2025?
Republican operatives were taking notes in November, December and January, and next time they'll be better prepared with coup-friendly laws and judges, and hard right MAGA loyalists in key positions in purple states. And yes, quite possibly they'll also be equipped with a majority in Congress unwilling to accept the legitimacy of a Democratic nominee's election victory.
1. Hispanics on average tend to be more blue collar than the average White person. And blue collar (work with their hands) people are way more likely these days to be Republican. It didn’t used to be that way of course, but it is today.
2. I have talked to several people in real life who live in South Florida and they said the propaganda aimed at Cubans was absolutely insane during the election.
I would urge caution though at reading too much into this swing. Remember: AZ has 2 US senators now and despite white movement left that could not have happened without substantial Hispanic support.
I think even more so than usual, it's dangerous to try and infer demographic trends from the 2020 election.
Democrats were forced by circumstances to spend 2020 explicitly calling for policies that crashed the economy, kept kids out of school, and generally constrained personal freedom. Trump spent the year speaking out against those things and sending out checks with his name on them.
In light of the big polling miss (for which I defer to David Shor's theory that we had a distinct partisan non-response effect going on), I suspect this was all much less popular than we thought, especially amongst child-rearing aged working class people of all races who bore the worst brunt of the downsides while being at the least personal risk. Hispanic people (to the degree it's a useful analytical category) are younger and more working class than the rest of the population on average, so I think they're the most impacted by this?
This is definitely not the only thing going on, but 2020 was such a weird year I'm hesitant to make any extrapolation.
What is the mechanism that is going to stop the pro-coup people from controlling state Republican parties, and winning primaries?
A Jungle Primary, and non-partisan redistricting, like California has, theoretically ought to help -- and yet all the same our county Republican parties are increasingly bonkers. (Bear in mind that Orange County is the _origin point_ of a lot of GOP craziness, going back to the days of the Birchers.) You had CA Republicans last fall engaging in placement of illegal ballot collection boxes. Essentially their strategy appeared to be to engage in illegal activity related to mail ballots, and then when called on it, shout about how there's so much illegal activity around mail ballots!!!1!!one!!
A) scaring Hispanics about socialism, Democratic mismanagement of the economy (i.e., endless lockdowns)
B) activitating racial tension between Hispanics and African Americans by demonizing Black Lives Matter/antifa/the George Floyd protests
C) appealing to male Hispanics' masculinity by portraying Trump as tough and unafraid of the virus
A gets talked get some, but not so much B and C, because it challenges white liberal priors or simply flies under their radar. But the evidence is clearly there if you look at how the Trump campain actually reached out to Hispanics.
Democrats should keep in mind that their multiracial coalition may be hard to keep together. They will need to provide everyone a seat at the table and a higher standard of living, otherwise they could bleed support. And when it's time for Kamala to run, she should probably pick a male Hispanic running mate.
TLDR: The Latino swing towards Trump in ‘20 was driven by small rural counties. The exit poll data is dicey at best, and the precinct analysis you cited is poorly done and ignores confounders.
I would not state this as gospel, but I do think you should note that the evidence for a general Latino swing is weaker than it looks.
Lets also not forget BLM and the stupid "Defund the Police" message. Politics at the top is increasingly seen as a battle of elites and only seen in Black and White. Mexican-Americans, many of whom would suffer from such idealistic policies, will naturally start aligning themselves with the party of colorblindness and universal messaging. Which, sadly, is primarily (only?) coming from the right these days.
First let me start by saying I'm Puerto Rican so I have some personal knowledge of the subject.
I think there are several factors at play and more than one apply to other non-white groups in addition to Hispanics.
First and most important the economy. The fact that the US was getting close to full employment was very good for people with low incomes but did not affect professionals or people with higher education as much.
The stimulus that occurred in 2020 meant that some people's income increased in the midst of the pandemic.
The state of the economy is related to the observation that Hispanics reward incumbents. This is true provided the economy is doing well. This used to be true of the entire electorate but is less true now because of increased partisanship.
Second observation. There is a growing number of Hispanics who are evangelical Christians and evangelicals vote GOP. This is a trend that has been going on for a while and to the degree that it continues it will benefit the GOP.
Outreach. The GOP was just better at it in 2020 than the Democrats. Outreach and persuasion is really important with Hispanics because unlike many voting groups they really can swing from one party to another. Most voters consistently vote GOP or Democrat put depending on get out the vote, ads, social media and other factors Hispanics will vote for one party or another.
So the economy and outreach can vary from election to election and both parties can do something about it. The trend of more Hispanic evangelicals is something that will benefit only the GOP.
To keep in mind though that GWB did far better among Hispanics than Trump and then Obama ran and got the level of Hispanic support for Democrats to historic heights.
I'm going to keep banging this drum: the election results gave us one more reason to prefer high-skilled immigrants (in the US, these come predominantly from Asia) to low-skilled immigrants (coming predominantly from Latin America).
It's important to remember that racism is only one element of the Trumpian electoral strategy. Another, possibly more important one is what Steve Bannon called "flooding the zone with shit": creating enough confusion among low-information voters that they can't consistently vote for their class interests (or simply for basic competence in governing).
There's no reason this strategy can't work on poorly educated voters of any ethnic background, and it's been shortsighted of Democrats to assume that just because some working-class immigrants have dark skin they'll be permanently immune to it.
This is an iceberg story, the most salient change is happening slowly under the surface.
According to Pew, the Republican Party has steadily gotten 1% less white every year for a few decades now. The headline always focuses on how much slower that is than the Democrats or baseline, but across decades, the direction matters more than the magnitude.
In a country that is changing its composition so decisively, no open public institution can remain unchanged forever. Strategy operates at the margins. Demographic inevitability is coming regardless.
The second/third order implications of a diverse Republican party are a lot stranger than most people expect.
With regard to stuff like the Hispanic swing in places like Texas and Florida, it's always important to keep in mind that the label "Hispanic" contains multitudes.
I've done a lot of work in the parts of South Texas between Laredo and Presidio and have become fascinated with the area and the people (some of the friendliest I've met anywhere, for that matter). It's one of most ethnically homogenous regions in the whole country. *Everyone* (well, 95% of people) is/are of Mexican ancestry. Not only the working poor and middle classes but cops, border guards, city councilors and mayors, bureaucrats, local notables and landowners, etc. While it's certainly a poor area and people complain quite a bit about the neglect Austin shows it, talk about White Privilege, micro-aggressions, and other woke-isms fall flat for the simple reason that it doesn't make context within the sense of everyday life. They just seem more like more crazy ideas from Austin liberals. Combine that with the fact that a lot of the population is devoutly Catholic (or increasingly Evangelical) it's easy to see why the Republican party increasingly appeals.
It's a different story among Hispanics in Los Angeles, for instance, where a much more solid sense of non-white identity and more leftist political orientation prevail. (Hispanics in Texas and Florida are way more likely to consider themselves white than in California or Washington State. In Florida's case that makes some sense since so many Cubans are of very recent Spanish extraction/immigrant descent but I don't know what to make of Texas.)
It's true that violent coup attempts in the US are likely to end in failure. Relatedly, without a doubt the GOP is fortunate indeed the death toll last month wasn't higher. Can you imagine if dozens or several hundred had died, including members of Congress? The rebuke would have been swift and far more forceful than the milquetoast measures we've seen so far (perhaps Pence would have invoked the 25th; perhaps the Senate would have held conducted a shotgun impeachment trial, who knows?)
But I think the above glosses over the real danger: a political/legal coup. Already we're seeing reports of various state-level GOP organizations being purged of non-Trumpists. Liz Cheney has apparently been censored by her state party. That nutty Qanon representative from Georgia received a standing ovation from her Republican colleagues.
It's clear the Trump team didn't have enough help from state GOP officials in their efforts to steal the election. But who's comfortable assuming it will transpire this way next time? Moreover, a significant majority of Republicans in Congress voted against certifying Joe Biden's Electoral College victory. Just imagine if both chambers were dominated by healthy Republican majorities. Is anyone really confident Biden will be *allowed* to secure a second term if that's the case in January of 2025?
Republican operatives were taking notes in November, December and January, and next time they'll be better prepared with coup-friendly laws and judges, and hard right MAGA loyalists in key positions in purple states. And yes, quite possibly they'll also be equipped with a majority in Congress unwilling to accept the legitimacy of a Democratic nominee's election victory.
There are multiple factors at play here I think.
1. Hispanics on average tend to be more blue collar than the average White person. And blue collar (work with their hands) people are way more likely these days to be Republican. It didn’t used to be that way of course, but it is today.
2. I have talked to several people in real life who live in South Florida and they said the propaganda aimed at Cubans was absolutely insane during the election.
I would urge caution though at reading too much into this swing. Remember: AZ has 2 US senators now and despite white movement left that could not have happened without substantial Hispanic support.
I think even more so than usual, it's dangerous to try and infer demographic trends from the 2020 election.
Democrats were forced by circumstances to spend 2020 explicitly calling for policies that crashed the economy, kept kids out of school, and generally constrained personal freedom. Trump spent the year speaking out against those things and sending out checks with his name on them.
In light of the big polling miss (for which I defer to David Shor's theory that we had a distinct partisan non-response effect going on), I suspect this was all much less popular than we thought, especially amongst child-rearing aged working class people of all races who bore the worst brunt of the downsides while being at the least personal risk. Hispanic people (to the degree it's a useful analytical category) are younger and more working class than the rest of the population on average, so I think they're the most impacted by this?
This is definitely not the only thing going on, but 2020 was such a weird year I'm hesitant to make any extrapolation.
What is the mechanism that is going to stop the pro-coup people from controlling state Republican parties, and winning primaries?
A Jungle Primary, and non-partisan redistricting, like California has, theoretically ought to help -- and yet all the same our county Republican parties are increasingly bonkers. (Bear in mind that Orange County is the _origin point_ of a lot of GOP craziness, going back to the days of the Birchers.) You had CA Republicans last fall engaging in placement of illegal ballot collection boxes. Essentially their strategy appeared to be to engage in illegal activity related to mail ballots, and then when called on it, shout about how there's so much illegal activity around mail ballots!!!1!!one!!
Why did Trump do better with Hispanics?
The Trump campaign did a lot of work:
A) scaring Hispanics about socialism, Democratic mismanagement of the economy (i.e., endless lockdowns)
B) activitating racial tension between Hispanics and African Americans by demonizing Black Lives Matter/antifa/the George Floyd protests
C) appealing to male Hispanics' masculinity by portraying Trump as tough and unafraid of the virus
A gets talked get some, but not so much B and C, because it challenges white liberal priors or simply flies under their radar. But the evidence is clearly there if you look at how the Trump campain actually reached out to Hispanics.
Democrats should keep in mind that their multiracial coalition may be hard to keep together. They will need to provide everyone a seat at the table and a higher standard of living, otherwise they could bleed support. And when it's time for Kamala to run, she should probably pick a male Hispanic running mate.
It is not clear that Latinos swung to the GOP in 2020. We’ll have a more formal paper out soon, but our preliminary county level results are summarized here: https://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2021/02/the-2020-horserace-regressions.html
TLDR: The Latino swing towards Trump in ‘20 was driven by small rural counties. The exit poll data is dicey at best, and the precinct analysis you cited is poorly done and ignores confounders.
I would not state this as gospel, but I do think you should note that the evidence for a general Latino swing is weaker than it looks.
Lets also not forget BLM and the stupid "Defund the Police" message. Politics at the top is increasingly seen as a battle of elites and only seen in Black and White. Mexican-Americans, many of whom would suffer from such idealistic policies, will naturally start aligning themselves with the party of colorblindness and universal messaging. Which, sadly, is primarily (only?) coming from the right these days.
In my experience, some of the very racist ideas about blacks have come from Hispanics. It is a crab pot thing.
First let me start by saying I'm Puerto Rican so I have some personal knowledge of the subject.
I think there are several factors at play and more than one apply to other non-white groups in addition to Hispanics.
First and most important the economy. The fact that the US was getting close to full employment was very good for people with low incomes but did not affect professionals or people with higher education as much.
The stimulus that occurred in 2020 meant that some people's income increased in the midst of the pandemic.
The state of the economy is related to the observation that Hispanics reward incumbents. This is true provided the economy is doing well. This used to be true of the entire electorate but is less true now because of increased partisanship.
Second observation. There is a growing number of Hispanics who are evangelical Christians and evangelicals vote GOP. This is a trend that has been going on for a while and to the degree that it continues it will benefit the GOP.
Outreach. The GOP was just better at it in 2020 than the Democrats. Outreach and persuasion is really important with Hispanics because unlike many voting groups they really can swing from one party to another. Most voters consistently vote GOP or Democrat put depending on get out the vote, ads, social media and other factors Hispanics will vote for one party or another.
So the economy and outreach can vary from election to election and both parties can do something about it. The trend of more Hispanic evangelicals is something that will benefit only the GOP.
To keep in mind though that GWB did far better among Hispanics than Trump and then Obama ran and got the level of Hispanic support for Democrats to historic heights.
I'm going to keep banging this drum: the election results gave us one more reason to prefer high-skilled immigrants (in the US, these come predominantly from Asia) to low-skilled immigrants (coming predominantly from Latin America).
It's important to remember that racism is only one element of the Trumpian electoral strategy. Another, possibly more important one is what Steve Bannon called "flooding the zone with shit": creating enough confusion among low-information voters that they can't consistently vote for their class interests (or simply for basic competence in governing).
There's no reason this strategy can't work on poorly educated voters of any ethnic background, and it's been shortsighted of Democrats to assume that just because some working-class immigrants have dark skin they'll be permanently immune to it.
I stopped reading at "whites only". Do people really take this place seriously?
This is an iceberg story, the most salient change is happening slowly under the surface.
According to Pew, the Republican Party has steadily gotten 1% less white every year for a few decades now. The headline always focuses on how much slower that is than the Democrats or baseline, but across decades, the direction matters more than the magnitude.
In a country that is changing its composition so decisively, no open public institution can remain unchanged forever. Strategy operates at the margins. Demographic inevitability is coming regardless.
The second/third order implications of a diverse Republican party are a lot stranger than most people expect.